geopolitics
On the Caspian Sea and the Ineptitude of Western Capitals: The “Forgotten” Eurasia
At the crossroads of Turkish, Russian, Chinese and Iranian ambitions, the Caspian Basin is once again becoming a strategic issue while Europe looks elsewhere.
U.S.-Iran Nuclear Negotiations: The Enduring Moscow–Tehran Axis
Seven years after Donald Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA), the unpredictable U.S. president announced the resumption of negotiations. These began in Oman on April 13. Some see the discussions between the Americans and Russians as an attempt to “pin...
ReArmed Europe: A Trump-Induced Strategic Awakening
Donald Trump’s return to power has shattered long-held certainties across the Atlantic. With NATO shaken and U.S. support for Ukraine suspended, Europe finds itself forced into a historic reckoning: stand together – or stand alone.
The Black Sea and its Stakes in the Ukrainian War
A "botched peace" imposed by Trump would cause a disruption of the balance in the Black Sea and change the geopolitical situation in the entire region.
Does Ukraine’s History Prompt Israel to Provide It With Special Support?
The defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah and the fall of the Assad regime open a new path for cooperation between the two countries.
The Baltic, a “NATO Lake”? Moscow’s Aggressive Policy in the Nordic-Baltic Region
European NATO members face Russian sabotage in the Baltic.
Confronting the Moscow-Beijing Axis: The Need for a Common Western Front in the Arctic
Donald Trump must be taken seriously in his speech on Greenland, which covers many geopolitical issues.
Moscow-Benghazi: scope and limitations of Russia’s shift to Libya
The “conflicting synergy” between Russia and Turkey will not prevent Putin from continuing his destabilizing action in the Western Mediterranean.
The Moscow-Beijing-Pyongyang triangle
The rapprochement between North Korea and Russia is strengthening, despite China's discontent. Can we then hope for a cooling of Russian-Chinese relations?
Fighting a ‘Holy War’: North Korea’s Role in Putin’s Crusade Against Ukraine
With a second nuclear-armed state entering the war against Ukraine, democratic governments face increasingly difficult choices.
Driving the Russians out of Syria
After the fall of Assad, the question of Russian bases in Syria is pending. The strategic stakes are major.
On the Axis of Evil and Naming the Powers Hostile to the West
Their level of coordination is already much higher than that of the Axis powers before WWII.
The Election of Donald Trump, the “Pivot” to Asia, and the Europeanization of NATO
How to avoid a geostrategic decoupling between the two shores of the North Atlantic?
Moscow and Pyongyang’s Alliance and Maneuvers on the Eurasian Stage: Let Us Stop Being in Denial
When Vladimir Putin welcomed Kim Jong-un to the Russian Far East from September 13 to 15, 2023, and the North Korean leader visited the Vostochny cosmodrome, a number of commentators said these were futile maneuvers. However, the delivery of North Korean munitions enabled Russia to make up for the...
The Sino-Russian Axis and its Extensions: The Challenge of Naming Reality
Putin's Russia-Eurasia and Xi Jinping's neo-Maoist China are maneuvering together.
Toward a Munich-Style Agreement, Slowly but Surely, and the Return of Feudalism
The lost time makes it increasingly difficult to thwart the project of world vassalization pursued by Xi Jinping and Putin.
Russia-Mongolia: Constraints Weighing on Mongolian Diplomacy
This country, a signatory to the Treaty of Rome, welcomed Putin despite the international arrest warrant. In truth, Mongolia's latitude for action is limited.
Regarding the Washington Summit: A Plea to NATO
What is the future of the alliance in the face of the very probable election of Donald Trump next November, a flamboyant survivor of an attack against him?
Why the EU Should Replace the Eastern Partnership With a Trans-Caspian Partnership
It is time for a more geopolitically assertive European Union to rethink geographically and broaden thematically its Eastern policy.
French Sovereignty and Western Solidarity in the Face of the Moscow-Tehran-Beijing Axis
The concrete exercise of sovereignty requires a certain number of conditions, including a clear awareness of the issues of the time.
In Pursuit of a More Perfect Union
Moscow has chosen its side. A few days before the second round of the French legislative elections, the Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry published a message that leaves no room for ambiguity: "The people of France demand a sovereign foreign policy that serves their national interests and a break from...
Solidarity in the Carpathian Region
A cross-border area of 16 million inhabitants, the Carpathian region is unique in its linguistic and cultural diversity.
South Africa, an Ally of Russia in Africa and Within the Global South
We must stop treating South Africa as some kind of liberal democracy on the African continent.
On Indian Diplomacy, Sino-Russian Eurasia, and the West: Towards a Geopolitical Transformation of India?
It is often said that India, along with Iran, is part of this anti-Western club. This is to forget that the differences between China and India are old and deep.
How to Explain the Yo-Yos of French Diplomacy?
Where does the idea come from to invite Russia, which did not participate in the Landing nor does it share the values that are the very foundations of our societies?
Subverting Elites and Manipulating the Masses: how Russian Interference Corrupts American Politics
Russian political culture has already permeated some American political circles. Fortunately, American opinion remains overwhelmingly pro-Kyiv, as does the Republican establishment.
On China as a Proxy for Russia-Eurasia: Lies and Historical Approximations in Chinese Geopolitical Discourse
In Europe, people are finally recognizing the depth of the Beijing-Moscow strategic axis, the driving force behind anti-Western dynamics and imperialist resentment.
Ukraine’s War and Challenges of Decolonization
Why western “political realists” are wrong about the nature of the Russian-Ukrainian war which is in fact a “culture war”, and is all about history and identity. In fact, this war has shaken the academic world, writes one of the best Ukrainian political analysts, Mykola Riabchuk.
The Russian war in...
Why Putin Chooses Chaos
Putin’s speech to Valdai unambiguously states his intention to destroy the international order and create chaos in its place in order to indulge in depredations without constraint. The support for Hamas displayed by Putin and his propagandists perfectly illustrates these aspirations.
The Second Front
Russia is carrying out undermining work among the Ukrainians themselves, but also by infiltrating Western decision-making circles, in Washington and in European capitals. Preventing Western support for a final victory for Ukraine and discouraging Ukrainians from fighting until victory, these are the Russian objectives that our author analyzes and denounces.
NATO, the Only Real Guarantee of Security for a Free and Independent Ukraine
After heavy tanks and long-range missiles, the lifting of the ban on the delivery of F-16 aircraft marks a new stage in the strengthening of the Ukrainian armed forces. In military and operational terms, this army is on a par with those of the main NATO member countries. When...
The Strategic and Geopolitical Limits of the Partnership Between Delhi and Moscow
India has gone from neutrality to "multi-alignment". It does not condemn the Russian aggression in Ukraine and rejects international sanctions. In fact, it is buying Russian hydrocarbons and fertilizers en masse. To justify themselves, Indian leaders refer to Kautilya, author of the Arthashastra, an ancient indigenous form of Realpolitik,...
A Geopolitical Mirage: the “De-westernization” of the World
Analyst and political philosopher Philippe de Lara examines the complexity of the notion of the "global South". The growing disenchantment with the West that can be observed in several regions of the world does not mean that the countries of the South have defined a united position in the...
From Belarus to Belorussia: the Resatellisation of a Former Soviet Republic
Since the worst cannot be ruled out, strategists need to "think the unthinkable". Thus, the announcement of the future deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus cannot be reduced to a rant, especially since these would in fact be battlefield weapons, with a range sufficient to strike a...
Sanctions: Useless, Really?
Criticism mounts today in the West with the strong encouragement of Kremlin propaganda against the sanctions put in place following Russian aggression against Ukraine. These sanctions were adopted in order to "weaken the Kremlin's ability to finance the war and to impose clear economic and political costs on the...
And now? On the Possibility of an All-out War
The war in Ukraine is in full swing. The order for the "partial mobilization" of Russian army reservists and part of the male population to go and fight in Ukraine, and the concomitant organization of pseudo-referendums in the occupied territories, have aroused a mixture of indignation and denigration in...
Iran, a platform for circumventing sanctions against Russia
According to the French geopolitologist, the Russian-Iranian alliance is strengthening against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, and Iran could become a platform for circumventing the geo-economic measures taken against Russia.
At this time, it is not clear that the Iranian nuclear agreement will be renewed, as negotiations are...
The Serbia-Russia Alliance, Belgrade’s Multi-faceted Diplomacy and the Improbable European Perspective
The European Union's acceptance of Kiev's candidacy, an adequate but insufficient decision to ensure Ukraine's defense, has repercussions in the Western Balkans.
Meeting on the eve of the European Council of June 23 and 24, the EU-Western Balkans summit did not result in any strong decision. This lack of a...
After Emmanuel Macron’s Trip to Kyiv, the end of France’s Russian Illusions?
Emmanuel Macron’s trip to Kyiv on June 16, 2022, where he was accompanied by the Romanian President, the German Chancellor and the Italian Prime Minister, seemed to mark a turning point in French foreign policy. But should this be seen as a break? Does France remain in the middle...
Why do we Want Ukraine to Win?
Today, the Ukrainian army is being tested in the Don basin. Some people explain that it would have to consent to a Russian victory. Is this a mood swing or cowardly hypocrisy? It is important to realize that Russia's war against Ukraine is a long-term one and that we...
Europe Must Accept Being at War
Accustomed to post WW2 peacetime, European politicians refuse to think about the war as state and as a process with its own political, social and economic dynamics. This breeds strategic myopia and tactical confusion.
The European Union is a peaceful alliance — yet it is a brainchild of people who...
History, Geopolitics and Perspectives of the Baltic Sea
On May 17, 2022, Finland officially announced its candidacy for NATO membership. And this, in spite of Moscow's threats of future "military-technical measures". The same goes for Sweden, breaking with its historical neutrality (1814), which is much older than Finland's. Finland's and Sweden's entry into NATO will profoundly modify...
The UN, Russian Aggression and the Impasses of Collective Security: Elements of Analysis and Response
The UN is experiencing a serious crisis following the Russian aggression against Ukraine. The Security Council is paralyzed by the Russian use of its veto power, which serves to cover up its misdeeds and exactions. Is there a solution?
The majority votes of the United Nations General Assembly, first to...
Defederating Russia
What happened to the Russian Empire? It disintegrated at the end of an imperialist war. What happened to the Soviet Union? It disintegrated at the end of the Cold War. What will happen to the Russian Federation?
The answer is obvious, even if it saddens many. Russian patriotism is such...
How to Train Europe: the Kremlin’s Exploitation of the Ukrainian Crisis
Westerners are wondering about Putin's intentions regarding Ukraine. They take into account the slightest declarations that emanate from the Kremlin, the movements of troops, the evolution of propaganda. But the broader context of the crisis often escapes them. The destruction of the independent Ukrainian state is certainly a priority...
Facing Russia: the Polish Geostrategic Actor and the Euro-atlantic Balance
The international crisis provoked by the Kremlin's pressure on Ukraine, considered as a pseudo-state doomed to destruction, has the virtue of clarifying the lines of force of the global strategic configuration. On the one hand, the expression "new Cold War" is no longer the object of a Freudian denial:...
The Balkans Could be the Scene of a Future Diplomatic Confrontation With Russia
The Russian military threat to Ukraine and, by extension, to Mitteleuropa (Central and Eastern Europe, sometimes called "median") focuses the attention of diplomats and strategists on the Baltic-Black Sea isthmus and the Pontic Basin. However, it should not be forgotten that the so-called Mitteleuropa covers the entire area between...
What Does the Russian Ultimatum to the West Mean?
On December 17, the Russian Foreign Ministry unveiled two draft texts — a "Treaty between the United States and the Russian Federation on Security Guarantees" and an "Agreement on Measures to Ensure the Security of the Russian Federation and the Member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization "....
Malignant Influence and Counter-influence: Responding to an Asymmetric Threat
The influence strategy of the Kremlin, as indeed of any dictatorial and criminal state, must be studied rigorously and as exhaustively as possible. Only on the basis of this extensive and systematic knowledge will it be possible to take the necessary measures methodically. This essay also shows that counter-influence,...
Ukraine, the Frontline of Russia’s Hybrid Wars
The current situation on the borders of Poland and Latvia, neighbours of Lukashenko's Belarus, underscores the topicality of so-called "hybrid" wars. Ukraine, for its part, has long been exposed to threats and manoeuvring from the Kremlin, the "godfather" to the despotic leader of Belarus. In truth, Russia is waging...
Can the European Union Build its Future Without Russia?
There is little room for maneuver in relations between the European Union and Russia, especially since the latter does not intend to negotiate or discuss anything. Moscow's geopolitical grievances and demands are directed at the West and, as things stand, Sino-Russian positions and interests are aligned. Russian and Chinese...
“Wagner” in Mali: the Tree Must not Hide the Forest
During the night of September 30 to October 1st, a Russian jumbo jet landed at the airport of Bamako (Mali). On its sides were four MI-171 helicopters. Thus, the information that the Malian military authorities (the result of two successive coups d'état) were negotiating with the Wagner group for...
Russia, Afghanistan and Central Asia: a Geopolitical Overview
The evaporation of the Afghan National Army and the collapse of a state carried at arm's length by the United States and its allies will have surprised Russians, Chinese and Westerners alike. While many Russian commentators are showing a form of "Schadenfreude", the situation that could result — i.e....
Russian Military Power: A Seasoned Army Serving a Revisionist Geopolitical Project
In the West, the primacy of domestic objectives, the "long war" against Islamic terrorism and the perception of international rivalries through the prism of geo-economics have for a time obscured the Russian threat. However, Russia has largely professionalized, re-equipped, mobile and projectable forces (Ukraine, Syria, Libya, sub-Saharan Africa). Clearly,...
The United States / Russia / China Triangle and the Improbability of a Reversal of Alliances
The priority given by American diplomacy to the Chinese threat sometimes leads to fears of a shift in favor of Russia, the objective being to drive a wedge between Beijing and Moscow. Ready to relay the language of Russian propaganda, some enthusiasts were already explaining that the meeting between...