At the end of August, Russian media published birth and death statistics for the Russian Federation. For Russian — those who must populate the 17 million km² of their own country and dream of occupying other countries, those who pursue the senseless chimera of hegemony in Europe — it is sad news. By the end of the first half of 2024, 599,600 babies were born in Russia, 16,600 fewer than during the same period in 2023, according to Rosstat, the Federal Statistics Service. Last year had already been marked by the lowest birth rate since 1999, but this year the number of newborns has dropped another 3%.
“In the first half of 2024, the number of births reached a record low,” said demographer Alexey Raksha. Birth rates in Russia have been declining since 2014. Does this mean that the Russian population, while celebrating the “return of Crimea,” felt conscious or unconscious anxiety about their future? Even the addition of two million new citizens, namely the inhabitants of the peninsula, did not tip the scales. The fertility rate — the average number of children per woman of childbearing age — fell to 1.44, the lowest since 2008. For comparison, this rate, which is also declining, is 1.6 in France.
Meanwhile, mortality is rising. For the ninth consecutive year, the death rate exceeds the birth rate. Every day, the country loses an average of 2,000 citizens. Between 2018 and 2023, Russia lost 3.4 million inhabitants, despite government incentives — such as the launch of the national “Demography” project, costing 40 billion euros — to encourage having children from the age of 18 and forming large families. According to forecasts by the Russian Academy of Sciences, the population of the Federation will shrink to 135 million by 2050, compared with nearly 146 million currently.
This alarming situation drives the Russian regime to fight Western “Satanism”: following the ban on the LGBTQ “international organization,” politicians and propaganda leaders are targeting the childfree “ideology”, as well as quadrobic, furry, and therian communities. In short, any type of human behavior that might prevent the average individual from creating a “normal” family, in line with the “traditional values” so highly praised by Vladimir Putin. As usual, the totalitarian state seeks to establish control not only over political life but also over the intimate lives of its citizens.
The declining demographics is also one of the “rational” reasons behind the all-out war against Ukraine. Cynically, some commentators make this calculation: even if Russia loses a million soldiers on the battlefield, it will gain 8–9 million new citizens through the occupation and annexation of Ukrainian territories. This could help curb the otherwise inevitable demographic decline. This context also explains the abduction of Ukrainian children.
Let’s take another look at the situation. Ukrainian authorities speak of nearly 20,000 children kidnapped with the help of the Russian military administration in the occupied territories. But this is just the tip of the iceberg. These figures only concern identified children, namely those who were placed in boarding schools and orphanages, and those who were taken from their parents under the pretext of providing “vacations” for the children in Russian territory or occupied Crimea. However, the Commissioner for Children’s Rights of the Russian Federation, Maria Lvova-Belova, who is under an international arrest warrant issued by the ICC, has provided much higher numbers. From the beginning of the “special military operation” and until July 2023, Russia received about 4.8 million residents from Ukraine and the Donbas republics, including more than 700,000 children, the vast majority of whom came with their parents or other family members. These are, of course, populations evacuated during combat in Ukraine, where Russia systematically opened humanitarian corridors only towards its own territory.
But even this is not the full picture. On the one hand, since 2014 and up until the start of the large-scale war, Donbas had already been emptied of part of its population: more than a million left for Ukraine, and as many, if not more, for Russia, fleeing the fighting, poverty, corruption, and all the other “delights” of life in the “people’s republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk. This means an additional 150,000–200,000 children lost to Ukraine.
Finally, according to Ukrainian data, the current population of the occupied regions of Ukraine is around 4.7 million people. Applying the same ratio as for the population already moved to Russia, we get about 700,000 more Ukrainian children undergoing forced Russification. If these regions remain under Russian control, as those advocating for a cessation of hostilities in exchange for the status quo desire, Ukraine will have lost, and Russia will have “gained,” more than one and a half million children — an absolutely monstrous number.
There is much talk in Western media about the destruction of Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. But when the Russian enemy boasts of “denazifying” Ukraine, it is primarily about the destruction of Ukrainian identity, notably through the elimination, displacement, and “re-education” of its bearers. While Russia’s demographic situation is bleak, worsened by losses on the frontlines, poor medical care, and low birth rates, Ukraine’s is simply catastrophic. According to official statistics, the population currently living in territories controlled by Ukrainian authorities is around 31.1 million people, a significant drop from the period prior to Russian invasion, nearly 42 million. Ukrainian authorities also lament the emigration, due to the war, of more than 5 million citizens, mostly women with children, some of whom may never return to Ukraine. The Ukrainian Academy of Sciences is sounding the alarm: by 2051, Ukraine’s population could shrink to just 25 million people.
This is genocide. Stealing children and adults to forcibly Russify them, and forcing part of the nation to emigrate, to empty the country as much as possible. For now, only Vladimir Putin and Maria Lvova-Belova are being pursued by the ICC. Thanks to the efforts of lawyers Emmanuel Daoud and Gabriel Sebbah of French law firm Vigo, who rely on research initiated by the association ‘Pour l’Ukraine, leur liberté et la nôtre’, 35 high-ranking Russian officials — members of the presidential administration, ministers, leaders of United Russia, or individuals holding high positions in the occupied territories — have been identified and, hopefully, will face international arrest warrants. This work must continue. No official, no “educator,” no orphanage director hosting Ukrainian children, no adoptive family should escape punishment. The criminal Putin regime should not rebuild its demographic health at the expense of Ukrainians, whose country and future it relentlessly destroys.
Born in Moscow, she has been living in France since 1984. After 25 years of working at RFI, she now devotes herself to writing. Her latest works include: Le Régiment immortel. La Guerre sacrée de Poutine, Premier Parallèle 2019; Traverser Tchernobyl Premier Parallèle, 2016.
