Geohistory and the Demands of the Moment
Do Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. counter-blockade mark a strategic turning point? These initiatives could be the beginning of a conflict for control of the seas—more specifically, maritime routes and geostrategic areas that govern the flow of traffic (straits, canals, capes, and gulfs), or even the seabed (the “war of the deep”). Viewed through the lens of history, this assertion is surprising. Doesn’t the concept of thalassocracy date back to ancient Greece? Moreover, Russian naval activity in the North Sea serves as a reminder that these conflicts are also being played out in Europe and are part of a long history.
Opening onto the Atlantic Ocean, the North Sea covers some 575,000 sq km. It is situated between the British Isles and Northern Europe. To the south, the Strait of Dover controls access to the English Channel; to the east, the Øresund Strait controls access to the Baltic Sea. As early as the High Middle Ages, the North Sea was a bustling commercial hub and was traversed by Frisian sailors. It also served as a route for Viking raids on the coasts of Western Europe (and beyond). Subsequently, trade relations between England and Flanders developed there (English wool for Flemish cloth), and the Hanseatic League dominated the North Sea–Baltic trade route. Its networks stretched from London to Novgorod, with the city of Lübeck as the leader and geographical hub.
At the heart of long-standing power rivalries
The rise of territorial states around the Baltic and the North Sea, as well as the shift of economic centers of gravity toward the Atlantic Ocean following the discovery of the Americas, ultimately brought about the downfall of the Hanseatic League and its solidarity. It was around the North Sea that the modern maritime powers—the United Provinces (present-day Netherlands) and Tudor England—emerged. In the 17th Century, the North Sea thus became the theater of the Anglo-Dutch Wars, fought for naval supremacy. In the wake of the Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars (1792–1815), British hegemony established itself in the North Sea as well as in Europe and the rest of the world.
By the end of the 19th Century, Wilhelmine Germany was rising in power and strengthening its base on Heligoland (the island was exchanged with the United Kingdom for Zanzibar in 1890). During World War I, the British fleet reaffirmed its clear superiority over the German fleet, reinforced by the military provisions of the Treaty of Versailles (1919) and not challenged by the Anglo-German Naval Agreement of 1935. During World War II, the North Sea was primarily an extension of the Battle of the Atlantic theater.
During the Cold War, the North Sea was one of the geostrategic areas where East and West faced off against each other, with the navies of NATO member countries tasked with tracking and monitoring Soviet submarines as they exited the Baltic Sea. In the current context, all the coastal states belong to the European Union and/or NATO (Norway is not a member of the EU but is part of the European Economic Area).
The North Sea also covers a continental shelf rich in hydrocarbons, whose contribution to European energy security has been significant since the period marked by the first oil crisis (1973). The North Sea’s oil and gas fields—particularly in British and Norwegian waters—have been exploited since the 1970s1. Finally, the North Sea, at the mouth of the Danish straits, serves as the Russian Navy’s access route to the English Channel and the Atlantic Ocean.
A New East/West Conflict
The escalation of tensions since the manu militari annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014 and the incidents caused by incursions of Russian aircraft and vessels into the maritime and airspace of the North Atlantic coastal powers have sparked renewed strategic interest in the North Sea, even more so following the Russian “special military operation” launched against Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Having escalated into a high-intensity war, the conflict is accompanied by a covert, so-called “hybrid” war against NATO, in the North Sea as well as in the Baltic. Energy platforms, wind farms, oil and gas pipelines, and submarine cable networks are the targets of this low-intensity war. Consequently, several coastal nations have signed a regional security pact (see below).
In truth, Russia’s provocations are becoming increasingly overt. While attention is focused on the Strait of Hormuz and the Arabian Gulf, the Kremlin is testing the resolve of the United Kingdom and NATO in the North Sea and the English Channel. For over a month, three Russian submarines conducted covert operations in British waters of the North Sea, above so-called “critical” infrastructure (cables and gas pipelines). According to British Secretary of State for Defense John Healey, who revealed the matter on February 10, the Russian objective was to identify and map the gas pipelines—essential to the UK’s energy supply—and the data cables connecting the two shores of the North Atlantic.
At the same time, we have learned that two oil tankers from the “ghost fleet,” escorted by a Russian frigate, sailed from the North Sea to the English Channel, challenging the Royal Navy (and the French Navy) to board them. These were the Universal and the Enigma, under the protection of the Admiral Grigorovich, a vessel of the Black Sea Fleet. Since the beginning of the year, more than three hundred oil tankers from the “ghost fleet” are reported to have transited through British waters in the North Sea. The Russian government is threatening to retaliate if London dares to board either of these vessels.
Current strategic developments in the North Sea, like the long history of the region, thus undermine the idea of a “liberal international order.” In fact, such an order did exist, but it was not imposed by the force that its advocates attribute to law (see the slogan “the force of law versus the law of force”). Limited in scope during the Cold War, this so-called “order” depended on the capacity and willingness of the United States—bolstered by its alliances in Europe and Asia—to enforce it; it rested on geopolitical conditions that have been called into question since the chaotic beginnings of the 21st Century. The desire for power among revisionist states, the missteps of American policy, and the shifting balance of power have ushered in a new era.
To conclude
In such a context, it is essential that European states, at sea as well as on land, assume as much of their own defense as possible. This major geostrategic arena extends from the Arctic and the North Atlantic to the “Greater Mediterranean” (Mediterranean/Middle East), along the Baltic-Black Sea axis and Europe’s eastern borders. Such an effort requires more than virtual “coalitions of the willing” which, from Ukraine to the Arabian Gulf, leave the initiative to the West’s enemies and adversaries (no deployment without their approval).
Let us be aware, however, that the lessons in law and morality dispensed by some European leaders, and the fantasy of a third way that would position Europe as the driving force behind a hypothetical Global South2, would appear to be a sublimation of our collective impotence. They would contravene the requirement for “burden-sharing” between the old and new West—a transfer of responsibilities already made uncertain by the attitude and inclinations of the Trump administration.
Addendum
On the North Sea Security Pact
Negotiations for a North Sea “security pact” began in April 2023 in Ostend, on the sidelines of a European intergovernmental summit initially dedicated to the development of offshore wind energy and green hydrogen production. Nine countries, including France, were represented and signed a declaration aimed at strengthening their cooperation in these areas. At the same time, five of them signed a joint declaration regarding the security of critical infrastructure in the North Sea. These were Germany, Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom, joined by Norway a year later (April 5, 2024). This “security pact” focuses in particular on gas and oil pipeline networks, submarine cables (data exchange and internet connections), as well as North Sea wind farms. Faced with pressure from the Russian navy, the six countries have decided to strengthen cooperation among their national and regional surveillance systems, notably through North Seal, a joint platform for communication and information exchange. The overall objective of this platform is to quickly identify suspicious movements and incidents and relay them to the relevant authorities, as well as to the European Union and NATO. In addition, the security system will rely on cameras, aerial and underwater drones, as well as artificial intelligence technologies. The North Sea Security Pact draws attention to the role of seabed warfare in the new Cold War between Russia and the West.
Associate professor of history and geography and researcher at the French Institute of Geopolitics (University of Paris VIII). Author of several books, he works within the Thomas More Institute on geopolitical and defense issues in Europe. His research areas cover the Baltic-Black Sea region, post-Soviet Eurasia, and the Mediterranean.