In November 2003, the Rose Revolution took place in Georgia. Following disputed parliamentary elections, large demonstrations organized by the opposition spread across the country, ultimately leading to the resignation of President Eduard Shevardnadze, who was suspected of corruption. In the subsequent presidential election, pro-Europe opposition leader Mikheil Saakashvili was elected, and his party (United National Movement) won the legislative elections. The country turned decisively toward the West with aspirations to quickly join NATO and the EU. Two factors enabled the successful and peaceful outcome of the popular uprising. Firstly, the poor population of an extremely corrupt country expected economic miracles as a result of this pro-Europe shift, and they strongly supported the revolution. Secondly, the Georgian army disobeyed government orders and sided with the opposition instead of dispersing protesters.
However, within a few years, Saakashvili and his regime made numerous mistakes in governing the country, and popular support diminished to the point that in 2012, the newly created opposition party, Georgian Dream, funded by pro-Kremlin billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, won the parliamentary elections. A few months later, the candidate of the same party, Giorgi Margvelashvili, became president, while Saakashvili was forced into exile.
In fact, the fate of the pro-West, ultra-liberal Georgian regime was sealed much earlier. In April 2008, NATO refused to grant Tbilisi (as well as Kyiv) MAP (Membership Action Plan) status. While the United States, Canada, Britain, and most Central European countries were in favor, Germany and France blocked the decision to avoid provoking Russia. Five months later, Russia deployed its troops in Georgia, seizing 20% of its territory for the benefit of two separatist regions whose independence it recognized and where it stationed its military bases and troops.
For its actions contrary to international law, Russia was not sanctioned. Furthermore, U.S. President Obama sought a “reset” in U.S.-Russian relations, and for Paris and Berlin, those years represented a sort of honeymoon with Putin and Medvedev. We still remember the major Franco-Russian projects, such as the sale of French Mistral helicopter carriers (thankfully canceled by President Hollande) or the construction of a large Russian religious and cultural complex on the Quai Branly in Paris. We also recall the two Nord Stream gas pipelines (fortunately damaged by a series of explosions) linking Russia to Germany across the Baltic Sea, as Germany hoped to “civilize” Russia under the motto “Wandel durch Handel” (fostering trade with authoritarian regimes to induce political change).
Preoccupied with grandiose projects that ignored the very nature of Putin’s regime, the West abandoned Georgia, leaving it to Russian propaganda and Ivanishvili’s twisted rhetoric (he is the real power in the country). Georgian Dream was wise enough not to restore diplomatic relations with Russia, which would have been unacceptable to Georgians after the 2008 defeat, but it significantly improved trade and political relations with Russia and did not participate in international sanctions following the large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Following the recipe adopted by many dictatorships, Ivanishvili and his ruling party combine propaganda, censorship, and the arrest of opposition members with the straightforward buying of certain segments of the population. For example, before the 2012 parliamentary elections, Ivanishvili promised to cut electricity and gas prices by 50%, and before the 2018 parliamentary elections, he promised nearly 600,000 Georgians that he would cancel outstanding loans they had with banks. Needless to say, these promises were ultimately reduced to much smaller aid measures or were not fulfilled at all.
For the 2024 parliamentary elections, after which Georgian Dream declared its victory, the promises were of a different kind. First, just months before the election, the Georgian Parliament passed two laws modeled on Russian laws: one on “foreign agents” that stigmatizes pro-West NGOs (which work to uphold human rights and public freedoms) and prevents them from operating; and one that bans “propaganda” of LGBTQ relations as contrary to Georgian “traditional values.” This opens the door to pro-Russia propaganda — albeit under a different name.
Following the technique developed under Yeltsin for his re-election, when his popularity was at an all-time low, the main electoral strategy was the instillation of fear. Yeltsin’s team, backed by oligarchs, spent millions on TV ads and campaign newspapers claiming that a return of the communists (his main opponents at the time) would bring famine, travel bans, and a revival of the Gulag, as under Stalin. This was, of course, gross exaggeration. Following this technique, Ivanishvili’s propaganda claimed that the opposition was the “party of war” and that its return to power would mean Georgia’s imminent destruction by Russia, accompanied by images of devastated Ukrainian cities. No comment.
In his main campaign speech, Ivanishvili announced that, in the next parliamentary term, opposition parties, which he labeled as “criminal associations,” would be banned. I quote: “The force that commits such a crime against its own homeland and people, which even today leads the country toward war, should not have even a theoretical possibility of returning to power. That is why, after gaining a constitutional majority, we will begin a judicial process that will result in declaring the National Movement and the satellite parties that followed it unconstitutional. These people must be tried in the harshest manner for all the heinous crimes they have committed against the country and the people.”
The country’s president, Salome Zourabichvili, called on Georgians not to recognize the election results, which were likely partially rigged, and to take to the streets. However, a repeat of the Rose Revolution should not be expected. For one thing, people have been subjected to pro-Russia and anti-West propaganda for the past twelve years, and for another, the opposition is divided into four factions and lacks a charismatic leader like Saakashvili when he was young. Moreover, given the looming repressive measures, many will simply be too afraid. The total crushing of popular opposition in Belarus by Lukashenko in 2020 and the destruction of the opposition in Russia in recent years shows that post-Soviet dictators are now full of resolve.
In short, the West failed to support Georgia in time and has lost it, perhaps for a long time, betraying its people’s European dream. Has the West at least learned any lessons from its defeat in this country that aspired only to Europe? It is highly doubtful.
Born in Moscow, she has been living in France since 1984. After 25 years of working at RFI, she now devotes herself to writing. Her latest works include: Le Régiment immortel. La Guerre sacrée de Poutine, Premier Parallèle 2019; Traverser Tchernobyl Premier Parallèle, 2016.
